The IMF, the OECD, and the European Commission have already highlighted the positive impacts of immigration on the national labor market, in a country with an aging population and labor shortages in several sectors.
The world's largest financial rating agency has issued several warnings about the risks to the Portuguese economy posed by the immigration policy implemented by Luís Montenegro's government.
The rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) predicts a reduction in migratory flows with the new policies that the AD Government announced for immigration.
Despite considering that the labor market in Portugal remains “robust”, with unemployment remaining low (averaging 6.5% between 2025-2028), S&P warns that “immigration flows are expected to slow” as “immigration becomes increasingly contentious in Portugal”.
Conclusion: immigration helps to "alleviate the labor shortage," according to the note published at the end of last week, the day the Portuguese Republic's rating was raised for the second time this year, cycling to A+ with a stable outlook.
Along with an aging population, less immigration will likely “intensify labor shortages,” warns S&P, the largest ratings agency by revenue, surpassing both Moody's and Fitch.
The number of people employed in Portugal reached a peak in the first half of this year, with an all-time high: almost 5.3 million jobs, according to INE data.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned about the positive impact of immigration in its latest report on the Portuguese economy.
"Increased labor market participation and positive immigration have led to more hours worked, while unemployment remains at historically low levels," the Fund's experts wrote in the report published in October 2024, when the measures had not yet been announced by the Montenegro government.
The European Commission has also spoken out about the positive effects of immigration on the national economy. "Unemployment remains relatively stable at 6.5% in 2024 and the first months of 2025, as both employment and the labor force continue to grow at a strong pace, helped by net immigration," according to the Brussels spring forecast released in May.
The Commission recalled that the employment rate reached a “new historic high of 64% in 2024”, predicting a moderation in employment growth, with wages rising slightly relative to GDP due to a “tight labor market in sectors such as information technology and construction”.
And what sectors do they work in? Immigrants tend to fill positions in sectors with a shortage of national labor or that the Portuguese don't seek out, such as hospitality, agriculture, cleaning, or construction, according to a Randstad Research study published in July by Lusa.
In July, a report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) ranked Portugal sixth among European Union countries where immigrants contribute most to the workforce. Without immigrants, the country's workforce would have declined, not grown, preventing a decline in the active population.
Immigrant contributions to Social Security reached a record high in 2024: 3.6 billion euros. In the space of three years, the amount doubled, skyrocketing by more than 150%.
Foreigners represent 10% of the population in Portugal and contributed 12% of the total contributions.
Brazilians represent the largest group (+37%), followed by citizens of India (6%) and Nepal (4%), followed by Cape Verde and Angola.
At the end of 2023, another North American rating agency already warned that, in “the coming years, unlike other aging countries, Moody's expects the negative impact of the demographic trend on potential growth to be mitigated by sustained net immigration.”