Lisbon, Feb 4, 2026 — The moderate Socialist candidate in Portugal's presidential election is poised to secure a decisive victory over the far-right populist leader in the second round, according to a new poll.
António José Seguro, former Socialist leader, leads with 67% of voting intentions, against 33% for the leader of the anti-establishment party Chega, André Ventura, according to a survey conducted by the Catholic University and released by the broadcaster RTP this Tuesday.
In the five decades since the Carnation Revolution in Portugal ended the authoritarian regime, the only time until then that a second round of presidential elections had occurred was in 1986, highlighting the political fragmentation and voter frustration with traditional parties amid the rise of the far right.
The Portuguese presidency is largely ceremonial, but it plays a key role in mediating the country's divided political landscape and holds the power to veto legislation and bring down the government.
Seguro stated that he would be a moderate and unifying president, independent of party politics, and that he would not act as a "shadow prime minister," refusing to interfere in the day-to-day workings of the government.
In contrast, Ventura warned that he would be "an interventionist president," promising to combat decades of corruption by traditional parties and promoting a strong anti-immigration agenda.
He faces criticism for comments considered racist towards the Roma community and immigrants from South Asia.
Chega, founded less than seven years ago, emerged last May as the main opposition force after obtaining 22.8% of the vote in the parliamentary elections.
Ventura's critics say he is merely using the presidential election to further strengthen and expand his party's presence in the country.