As Portugal heads toward its presidential election on 18 January 2026, political observers are watching one of the country’s most unlikely players: the six-year-old far-right party Chega (“Enough”). While the party has surged in recent years, a newly published poll suggests its presidential hopes may be faltering — creating a pivotal moment in Portuguese politics.
Chega, led by André Ventura, has risen rapidly. In the snap May 2025 legislative vote the party garnered around 22–23 % of the vote and secured 60 seats in the 230-seat parliament, overtaking the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) as the main opposition force.
But despite this momentum, a recent poll—cited in the Algarve Daily News—found Chega nearly falling to fifth place in a hypothetical first round of the presidential contest, after being implicated in a xenophobia scandal.
The poll suggests that while Chega’s legislative gains have been significant, its appeal in a presidential field—which tends to favour broadly acceptable personalities rather than party ideologues—may be limited.
The Scandal That Hit Chega
The Algarve Daily News article highlights that Chega’s campaign has been rocked by allegations of xenophobic comments and internal misconduct. Combined with voter wariness of extreme parties in a non-parliamentary figure race, this has triggered a “flop” scenario: the party’s candidate could fail even to make the second round.
This development may force Chega to recalibrate. Veteran voters accustomed to Portugal’s two-party dominance (PS and the centre-right PSD/AD coalition) appear less willing to endorse a party tainted by scandals—even one that recently broke through the political barrier.
Who’s Leading the Presidential Race?
According to aggregated polling data for the 2026 presidential race, three candidates currently dominate:
- Henrique Gouveia e Melo (independent, former naval chief) is often ahead with ~20-25 % support.
- Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) and António José Seguro (PS) both also command interest among centrist voters.
- Chega’s candidate trails, according to many recent polls, in the 10-18 % range.
In second-round match-ups, Gouveia e Melo remains the only candidate shown consistently capable of beating all challengers — including Chega.
While legislative elections test party strength, a presidential race in Portugal focuses on personality, broad alliances and public trust. The presidential office (Palácio de Belém) may be ceremonial, but in times of instability, the president can shape government formation and national rhetoric.
Portugal has endured three national elections in three years and a fragile political equilibrium. The surge of Chega in parliament added to uncertainty, yet the party’s difficulties in the presidential context may reveal its limits beyond legislatures.
For many voters, the offshore threat of vetting a far-right presidency is more daunting than a rebellious legislative gesture.
What This Means for Chega — and Portuguese Politics
- For Chega: The challenge is to convert legislative gains into an acceptably mainstream candidature. Failure to reach round two could signal that while many Portuguese are tempted by protest votes, fewer are willing to entrust a far-right party with the moral symbol of the presidency.
- For the centre-right and centre-left: The unfolding race presents an opportunity. A credible, moderate candidate (such as Gouveia e Melo) may unite voters seeking stability after years of turbulence.
- For the electorate: A harsh paradox emerges. The electorate rewarded anti-establishment anger in 2025, but now seems cautious of translating that anger into institutional leadership.
- Chega’s dramatic parliamentary rise in 2025 has not yet translated into strong presidential prospects.
- Polls suggest the party may drop to fifth place in a first-round scenario, pointing to the limits of far-right extension.
- The 2026 presidential election is shaping up as a test of personality over party, where trust, moderation and cross-party appeal will matter more than ideological firebrands.