Portuguese Presidential Elections Headed for Second Round, With André Ventura Unlikely to Become President

Lisbon Dec 25, 2025— As Portugal moves toward its next presidential election, all available political indicators point to one clear conclusion: the race is heading for a second round, and despite strong visibility in opinion polls, André Ventura is not expected to become President of the Republic.

Recent surveys consistently show a fragmented electorate, with no candidate anywhere near the absolute majority required to win outright in the first round. This makes a runoff election virtually inevitable, most likely between two candidates with broader cross-party appeal.

Although André Ventura, leader of the Chega party, remains one of the most polarizing and visible figures in the race, political analysts widely agree that his path ends before the final victory. Historical voting behavior, combined with Portugal’s tradition of centrist consolidation in second rounds, suggests that anti-Ventura votes are likely to unite behind an alternative candidate, preventing him from securing the presidency.

In second-round scenarios tested by multiple polling institutions, Ventura consistently underperforms against centrist or independent contenders, as voters from the left and center-right tend to rally around a single opponent to block an extremist outcome. This dynamic has already been observed in past presidential elections and remains deeply embedded in Portugal’s democratic culture.

The most realistic outcome, according to analysts, is a second-round contest between moderate or independent figures, where institutional stability and international credibility become decisive factors. In that context, Ventura’s confrontational political style, while energizing a segment of the electorate, appears insufficient to attract the broad national consensus required to assume the presidency.

As the campaign progresses, attention is increasingly shifting away from first-round positioning and toward second-round alliances, where moderation, experience, and constitutional responsibility are expected to weigh more heavily than protest votes.